Super El Niño 2026: what it is and what it could mean for the world and Europe
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Climate scientists are watching the equatorial Pacific closely. Ocean temperatures are rising, and global forecasting centres now expect El Niño conditions to develop from mid-2026. If the event strengthens, it could add another layer of heat to an already unusually warm planet – with 2027 potentially becoming a record-breaking year.
The World Meteorological Organization does not use the term "super El Niño", because it is not part of standard operational climate classifications. Still, the phrase is widely used in public discussion to describe exceptionally strong El Niño events.
El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, one of the most powerful natural climate patterns on Earth. It occurs when sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean become warmer than usual. This changes atmospheric circulation, shifts rainfall zones, and affects weather far beyond the Pacific.
In neutral conditions, trade winds push warm surface water westward toward Asia, while colder deep water rises near the coast of South America. During El Niño, these winds weaken, allowing warm water to spread eastward. As a result, a vast area of the ocean releases more heat into the atmosphere, altering rainfall, drought patterns, storm activity and global temperatures.
El Niño typically occurs every two to seven years and often lasts around nine to twelve months.
One of the main indicators is the Niño 3.4 index, which tracks sea-surface temperature anomalies in a key region of the equatorial Pacific.
NOAA reported that ENSO-neutral conditions were still present in May 2026, with the latest weekly Niño 3.4 value at +0.4°C. However, subsurface heat in the equatorial Pacific had increased for six consecutive months, pointing to a likely transition toward El Niño. NOAA's May update estimated an 82% chance of El Niño emerging in May–July 2026 and a 96% chance that it would continue through December 2026–February 2027.
There is still uncertainty around peak strength. NOAA stresses that no strength category currently exceeds a 37% probability, while Copernicus' May seasonal forecast shows a stronger signal: more than half of its multi-system ensemble members exceed 2.5°C in the Niño 3.4 index by the end of the forecast period.
The three strongest modern El Niño events are usually associated with 1982–83, 1997–98 and 2015–16. The 2015–16 event ranked among the three strongest since 1950, alongside 1982–83 and 1997–98.
The 1982–83 El Niño brought floods, landslides and severe droughts across many regions. In Ecuador, some arid areas received more than 3 metres of rain, causing widespread flooding and damage. In California, storms, coastal erosion and heavy surf affected parts of the coast.
The 1997–98 El Niño became one of the most damaging climate shocks of the modern era. Research cited by the U.S. National Science Foundation estimates that the global economy lost around $5.7 trillion in the half-decade after the 1997–98 event, while the 1982–83 event was associated with around $4.1 trillion in lost global growth.
The 2015–16 El Niño coincided with record global heat, severe droughts, coral bleaching, food security impacts and major disruptions across several continents. WMO reported that early 2016 was strongly influenced by El Niño, with drought affecting parts of southern Africa, Southeast Asia, northern South America, India, Ethiopia, eastern Australia and Pacific islands. More than 60 million people were affected by extreme weather and climate-related events linked to the 2015–16 El Niño.
The concern in 2026 is not only El Niño itself. It is the fact that El Niño is developing on top of an already overheated climate system.
WMO notes that El Niño events usually have a warming effect on global climate, and that climate change can amplify their impacts by increasing the amount of heat and moisture available for extreme weather such as heatwaves and heavy rainfall.
Carbon Brief estimates that 2026 is likely to be the second-warmest year on record, with a best estimate of 1.47°C above pre-industrial levels. It also gives 2026 a 19% chance of becoming the warmest year on record and around a 30% chance of exceeding 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
Historically, the year after an El Niño winter peak often sees the strongest global temperature response. Carbon Brief notes that if a strong or "super" El Niño develops in 2026, its largest temperature effect would likely be felt in 2027, because global surface temperatures tend to respond with a delay of around three months.
El Niño does not affect all regions in the same way. WMO says it is typically associated with increased rainfall in parts of southern South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa and Central Asia. At the same time, it often brings drought risk to Australia, Indonesia and parts of southern Asia.
During boreal summer, El Niño's warmer waters can fuel hurricanes in the central and eastern Pacific, while suppressing hurricane formation in the Atlantic Basin.
The economic risks are also broad. Agriculture, food prices, water availability, hydropower, wildfire risk, insurance losses and public health systems can all be affected when heat, drought or flooding intensify.
Europe is not usually the region most directly affected by El Niño. Its climate is shaped more strongly by the North Atlantic, Arctic conditions, land–atmosphere feedbacks and regional circulation patterns. But El Niño can still matter indirectly, especially when it reinforces an already warm global background.
WMO expects land temperatures to be above normal almost everywhere in May–July 2026, with a particularly strong signal over Europe and North Africa.
Copernicus' latest seasonal forecast also points to above-average summer temperatures across Europe, with the most confident signal over the southeastern part of the continent. Precipitation signals are weaker, but eastern Europe is forecast to have a higher likelihood of below-average seasonal rainfall.
That means Europe's key risks are likely to include:
Russia and Central Asia are examples of regions where El Niño's influence is more indirect and highly dependent on atmospheric circulation. The broader lesson is that outside the tropics, El Niño is rarely a simple one-to-one cause of local weather. It is one driver among many – but in a warming world, even indirect drivers can increase the probability of damaging extremes.
A strong El Niño is now a serious possibility for 2026–2027, although its final strength remains uncertain.
The term "super El Niño" is not an official scientific category, but it is commonly used to describe very strong events.
NOAA gives a high probability that El Niño will emerge in mid-2026 and persist into winter 2026–27.
Carbon Brief estimates that 2026 is likely to be among the warmest years ever recorded, while 2027 could become even hotter if El Niño peaks strongly.
For Europe, the clearest signal is heat: above-average summer temperatures are expected across the continent, with the strongest confidence in southeastern Europe.
El Niño is natural, but its impacts now unfold in a climate system already warmed by human greenhouse gas emissions. That is what makes the 2026–2027 outlook so important.
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