Is COP31 Presidency going around the TAFF problem?

So far, the COP31 Presidency is off to a rough start.

The 1.5°C global warming limit of the Paris Agreement will be overshot in the near future. Türkiye has branded the upcoming climate negotiations as the “Implementation COP” – just like Brazil did last year.

And yet it seems that like the previous year, it will focus on different aspects of implementation except for the most obvious indicator of success for addressing the climate crisis – but we’ll get to that later.

For now, some of the issues highlighted in the last few weeks are necessary to be emphasised more in the context of climate COPs – but not without downsides.

Upside down?

To give credit (not the carbon kind) where credit is due, the COP31 action agenda properly highlights three issues that are not as discussed in the global climate negotiation spaces – electrification, waste, and artificial intelligence (AI).

The goal of increasing electricity share in global energy demand to 35% by 2035 is a notable development, as it serves as a way to bridge the largely-technical and political nature of the negotiating discourse with the experiences of billions of people globally. This target has implications on global energy security, electricity rates, and dependence on fossil fuels.

Except this pledge does not fully require that the resulting 12% increase from the current global electricity share would be purely driven by renewable energy (RE). It leaves the window open for an even-higher share of fossil fuels in the power sector, which is the last thing a world exceeding 1.5°C needs.

A similar case can be seen in the emphasis of waste in the agenda – targets of slashing by 50% the rise in generated municipal waste worldwide and increasing global circular material use rate to at least 15% by 2035 are a sign of a key climate change mitigation sector getting more focus in this space. These would also aid in addressing methane emissions, including the 30% emissions reduction by 2030 as set under the Global Methane Pledge from COP26.

As critical it is to address methane that could help slow down short-term warming, it would not help as much in reducing emissions of CO2, which remains the more critical and dominant driver of long-term global warming and climate changes.

The third of these themes, climate-responsible AI, is framed towards creating a “new business”-as-usual scenario. In this case, this means that the expansion of the current AI wave is acceptable and its efficiency would limit or offset the resulting high ecological footprint, including greenhouse gas emissions.

Yet the electricity “climate-responsible” AI data centres would consume is projected to triple between 2025 and 2030 and would generate even more electronic waste that would add to the volume that must be managed through circular economies. This presents a potential sign of incoherence among just three of the themes the COP31 Presidency wants to emphasise.

By this point, when folks try to attach the word “responsible” to an industry with high adverse ecological cost like AI or mining, it does not really bode well for communities and ecosystems.

The downside

It is true that the Action Agenda and the actual climate negotiations – which would be led by Australia in Antalya – are separate tracks. Yet there is no denying about the substantial agenda-setting power of those leading and hosting the negotiations.

And that is really what it comes down to: political prioritisation.

If all climate COPs moving forward are genuinely intended to focus on implementation, then they must focus on turning the recommendations of the Global Stocktake (GST) into realised actions. Back during the conclusion of the first GST at COP28, there is no louder outcome than the need for transitioning away from fossil fuels (TAFF).

Yet the decision texts since the Dubai climate talks do not even mention fossil fuels in them. The demand for coal, oil, and gas actually increased by up to one percent. The negotiations have become so divided that TAFF – which should be the centerpiece of the climate COP – is now largely moving forward through a track outside of the UNFCCC itself.

As necessary as it is to discuss electrification, waste, or whatever climate-responsible AI actually is, they should not receive more attention and publicly-communicated prioritisation than addressing fossil fuels, which is the root of the climate crisis.

Making the TAFF choice is never going to be easy – as a multilateral political discourse or as a long-term process to be implemented. Yet the 1.5°C overshoot goes beyond politics or anything else. It is not even about building a better future yet, but more of avoiding even worse scenarios for the foreseeable future, for emissions and warming to peak, then decline over time.

Making the TAFF choice is something that all nations should have been made decades ago, yet one that is now just as inevitable as the overshoot itself. At least the COP30 Presidency is working on a roadmap for it within the UNFCCC space, but it remains to be seen how the resulting document would influence global climate action.

All these themes being highlighted by the COP31 Presidency in its Action Agenda can complement the inevitable move of truly starting the end of fossil fuel dominance in the global energy landscape. But they should not be substitutes for facing this issue head-on. It is impossible to solve a problem without tackling the root cause in the first place.

The success of COP31 – like any other round of negotiations before it – will be assessed on whether or not it makes the TAFF choice. There is simply no other way around it.

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