Azerbaijan’s COP29 gamble: A host under the spotlight

A host under the spotlight

Azerbaijan’s selection as the host for COP29, the world’s most significant climate summit, has sparked intrigue and criticism. On the surface, the oil-dependent nation appears to be attempting to transform its international image by aligning itself with global climate action. However, a closer look reveals a country grappling with deep contradictions.

Azerbaijan has been a major fossil fuel exporter for decades, and its economy has been heavily reliant on oil and gas. While the government now speaks the language of sustainability, its ongoing investments in hydrocarbons paint a different picture. This duality raises the question: can Azerbaijan genuinely lead on climate when its economic lifeblood is tied to the industries driving global warming?

Nagorno-Karabakh: greenwashing post-conflict reconstruction?

The most contentious issue in Azerbaijan’s climate narrative is its approach to the Nagorno-Karabakh region. In 2020, Azerbaijan launched a military campaign to reclaim control over the disputed territory, resulting in the displacement of over 100,000 ethnic Armenians. Since then, the Azerbaijani government has tried to reframe its actions in Nagorno-Karabakh through the lens of sustainability, promising to transform the region into a "green" zone of development and reconstruction.

But for the displaced population, these promises feel hollow. Critics argue that Azerbaijan’s talk of green development in Nagorno-Karabakh is little more than an attempt to whitewash its military actions. The international community must remain vigilant, ensuring that COP29 does not become a platform for legitimising forced displacement under the guise of sustainability. Instead, any rebuilding efforts in Nagorno-Karabakh should be inclusive and transparent, prioritising the rights of all displaced communities while adhering to international human rights standards.

If executed responsibly, post-conflict reconstruction in Nagorno-Karabakh could become a model for integrating sustainability into peacebuilding. But for this to happen, there must be a commitment to genuine environmental justice, not just cosmetic greenwashing aimed at improving Azerbaijan’s global image.

Fossil fuel dependency: A critical test

While Azerbaijan seeks to present itself as a climate leader, the reality is that the country’s economy remains firmly entrenched in fossil fuels. Oil and gas exports account for a significant portion of its GDP, and the transition to renewable energy has been slow and cautious. This creates a dilemma for Azerbaijan’s COP29 leadership: how can a nation so reliant on hydrocarbons effectively champion global decarbonisation efforts?

Azerbaijan intends to use COP29 to highlight its commitment to sustainability, but actions will speak louder than words. The country could use the conference to announce ambitious renewable energy targets, such as increasing investment in wind and solar power, which could help diversify its economy. But for many, the question remains: is Azerbaijan truly ready to lead the way toward a sustainable future, or is this merely a temporary pivot to enhance its international standing?

The South Caucasus region, which Azerbaijan shares with Armenia and Georgia, faces shared environmental challenges like deforestation, water scarcity, and pollution. Baku could leverage COP29 to promote regional cooperation on environmental issues, offering solutions that transcend political divisions. Doing so would benefit the region and demonstrate that Azerbaijan’s climate leadership is grounded in concrete action, not just rhetoric.

Climate finance: A bridge between oil producers and developing nations?

Azerbaijan has pledged to make climate finance a key priority of its COP29 presidency. Given the urgent need for developed countries to provide financial support to poorer nations most affected by climate change, this focus could prove pivotal. Azerbaijan’s unique position as both a fossil fuel producer and an emerging player in sustainability gives it a potential role as a bridge between oil-exporting nations and developing countries seeking climate funding.

However, the credibility of this commitment will hinge on Azerbaijan’s willingness to lead by example. One way it could do this is by increasing transparency around how it plans to allocate climate finance and ensuring that these funds are used to support genuine domestic and international decarbonisation efforts. Without clear accountability mechanisms, Azerbaijan risks being perceived as a nation that talks about climate action while continuing to prioritise fossil fuel interests.

Furthermore, Azerbaijan could advocate for a more equitable climate finance system, ensuring funds are directed to the countries and communities most vulnerable to climate impacts. Given the global inequalities exacerbated by the climate crisis, COP29 presents an opportunity to address these disparities and ensure climate finance reaches those most in need.

Civil society’s role: Ensuring accountability

One of the most pressing concerns surrounding COP29 in Azerbaijan is the country’s restrictive environment for civil society. Over the years, Azerbaijan has been criticised for its poor human rights record, particularly its treatment of journalists, activists, and opposition figures. Environmental activists, in particular, have faced significant obstacles in holding the government accountable for its environmental policies.

For COP29 to succeed, Azerbaijan must create space for civil society to engage openly and freely in climate discussions. This means allowing NGOs to operate without fear of repression and ensuring that all voices, particularly those critical of the government’s environmental policies, are heard. Civil society plays a crucial role in holding governments accountable, and without their participation, any climate commitments made during COP29 risk being superficial.

Azerbaijan could take meaningful steps to improve its civil liberties record in the lead-up to COP29 by relaxing restrictions on NGO registration, allowing peaceful protests, and ensuring the safety of environmental activists. These actions would enhance the conference's credibility and mark a significant step forward for human rights in the country.

Azerbaijan’s moment of truth

As COP29 draws closer, Azerbaijan faces a pivotal moment. Hosting a global climate summit provides an unprecedented opportunity to reshape its international reputation and demonstrate genuine leadership on environmental issues. But with this opportunity comes immense responsibility.

Azerbaijan must go beyond rhetoric and deliver concrete actions demonstrating its commitment to sustainability to avoid accusations of greenwashing. This includes accelerating the transition from fossil fuels, ensuring transparency in climate finance, and creating an enabling environment for civil society. The world will be watching closely, and the legacy of COP29 will depend on whether Azerbaijan can rise to the occasion.

At the same time, the international community has a role to play in ensuring that COP29 leads to real progress. By holding Azerbaijan accountable and pushing for meaningful reforms, global leaders can help ensure that this climate conference is remembered not for its contradictions but for its contributions to the fight against climate change.