Why carbon removal will thrive - regardless of who wins the election

The upcoming U.S. presidential election on November 5, 2024, has the climate community on edge. To all my fellow CDR professionals worried about a climate denier in the white house - fear not. CDR will thrive regardless of the outcome.

With over six years in the CDR space, I've witnessed the ebbs and flows of the CDR community. From traveling across East Texas engaging with timber management professionals, foresters, and scientists like the renowned wood burial expert Dr. Ning Zeng, to collaborating with geoscientists, architects and builders in Houston -  to the truck drivers and machine operators in the field - the journey has been both challenging and inspiring. In 2019, the air was filled with discussions about the 2018 Bipartisan Budget Act and high prices on California's Low Carbon Fuel Standard, both incentivizing carbon sequestration through credits and purchases. The momentum was palpable, and the mission was clear: develop a cost-effective carbon removal product that makes sense.

During Trump's first presidency, we experienced significant momentum in CDR. The bipartisan support and passing of the Carbon Oxide Sequestration Tax Credit (45Q) in 2018 demonstrated that climate action can be bipartisan. But most of the activity was led by the private sector. CDR purchases by Microsoft and Stripe led the way. Companies across the spectrum - including tech giants like Stripe and energy leaders like Exxon, Shell, and BP - began seriously exploring and investing in negative emissions technologies. They advertised it. Then COVID hit. In 2021 and 2022, funding for ESG start-ups slowed tremendously. When the Inflation Reduction Act, passed, there was hope it would stimulate CDR activity again; but besides specific DOE grants to CDR, the money went more into renewables and sustainability generally. CDR still lacks widespread demand; most purchases, government and private, are one-offs.

Bipartisan support for initiatives like the carbon sequestration tax credit and the IRA underscore a bipartisan commitment to sustainability and carbon removal solutions. But these handouts are not sustainable. Ultimately, for a CDR ecosystem to thrive, there will need to be a functioning marketplace. While Trump's statements about the "Green Scam" or "drill baby drill" grab the headlines, in truth neither an expanded Carbon Sequestration Credit or another iteration of the IRA would made CDR work long-term. The only sustainable path to grow CDR is a working CDR market- with demand- and the prerequisites for this are 1) public consensus on the utility of CDR, 2) public or private incentives / regulations which force certain types of emissions to be offset, 3) a transparent, regulated and trusted authority that accreditates and oversees CDR suppliers. This can't be accomplished with only one US political group - it will take both, and when Republicans get behind it, a working CDR market will emerge. That's a long way away, but there's reason to believe that path leads through four years of Trump:

1.  Elon Musk

In building public consenus for CDR, there is no better conduit than Elon Musk. Elon Musk is a huge supporter of CDR, as shown by the $100 million XPRIZE for Carbon Removal he sponsored. Forward thinking and serious about lowering emissions, Musk is the 

2. Economic opportunities in rural America

Nature-based CDR solutions have the widest applicability in rural areas across the U.S., where Trump needs to create economic opportunity for his base. CDR can create millions of green jobs for these left-over communities. 

3. Tangible results through physical products

Unlike traditional carbon offsets, CDR creates physical products - such as biochar, durable wood products, and sequestered CO₂ - that can be measured, verified, and monitored with certainty. This transparency and accountability align with a result-oriented approach, assures that investments are leading to real-world impacts.

4. Additional sustainability benefits

The physical products generated from CDR have other value and usefulness in sustainability efforts, from soil health, enhanced biodiversity and air quality. These non-controversial and valuable benefits contribute to public health and environmental quality, and the bottom line of CDR.

5. CDR MAGA

America is the leader in CDR deployment, and the global reputation possibilities are likely to push leaders like Trump towards supporting it. Embracing CDR allows the U.S. to showcase its innovation, create export opportunities, and strengthen its position as a global technology leader - a narrative that resonates with a focus on national pride and leadership.

6. Providing freedom and choice with known costs

A working CDR marketplace would address climate issues with willing buyers and suppliers doing all the work; no heavy handed regulation necessary. CDR pathways have known costs versus the unknown costs of reducing emissions through mandate. Those who want to participate can do so voluntarily, while those who are dead set against it do not have to -  preserving Americans' freedom and choice. It offers a market-driven solution that doesn't mandate changes but instead encourages participation through incentives.

A path forward for all

Under Trump, CDR could benefit disproportionately compared to traditional offsets, which are already under siege for a host of quality and verifiability issues. The drive and determination of the CDR community to build compelling MRV is unwavering. Together, we'll continue to improve the products, improve the MRV, and improve public trust, leading the way in addressing climate change - no matter the political landscape. America's legacy of innovation and leadership is CDR's guiding light, and I don't believe Republicans will drop it.

So, to my fellow CDR pioneers - fear not. The fundamental advantages of carbon removal align well with priorities across the political spectrum. Whether through economic opportunity in rural communities, the support of influential innovators like Elon Musk, or the appeal of enhancing America's global leadership, there are strong reasons to believe that CDR will continue to advance.