Where is the promotion of New Zealand’s public interest?

“Deindustrialisation, Deregulation, Privatisation, Austerity, Brexit. And what has it given us? A country run for vested interests. Not in the public interest.”

– British Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s speech to the Labour Party Conference, September 2026

Except for Brexit, this quote could just as well apply to New Zealand. As a climate scientist, I have a global perspective, with concerns about New Zealand as a whole. Private sector interests have a very narrow perspective on profitability; while the public interest requires consideration of national resilience, energy security, employment and long-term wellbeing.

New Zealand is one of the world’s most remote countries. All the major continents and liveable land masses – North and South America, Europe, Asia and Africa – are in the other hemisphere. Only Australia is nearby. Consequently, much of our population, manufactured goods and vital resources depend on long-distance transport. This includes tourists, petroleum products, fertiliser, electronic goods, medicines, machinery and vehicles.

Recent disruptions illustrate the vulnerability. The Strait of Hormuz has been closed, the Suez Canal has been compromised by conflict, and the Panama Canal has faced restrictions because of drought. Transport costs have risen markedly, feeding directly into New Zealand prices. No wonder the economy is under stress.

The pressure points

Geopolitical tensions have pushed oil above US$100 a barrel and increased air and shipping costs for New Zealand. As a remote, relatively small market, we are far down the global logistics chain and vulnerable when shipping routes are disrupted.

New Zealand’s trade balance is particularly sensitive to imported fuel and high-technology goods. The closure of Marsden Point in April 2022 removed our domestic refining capability. Its operation had not suited the commercial interests of the companies that owned a majority share. New Zealand is now dependent on imported refined petroleum and international shipping, and any disruption means few alternatives.

The obvious long-term response is to reduce our dependence on imports wherever possible. That means renewable electricity, electrifying transport and industry, and retaining or rebuilding domestic capabilities where they are strategically important. It means considering resilience and national security alongside the conventional economic measures of efficiency and price.

How did this happen?

Before 1984, New Zealand had a heavily protected economy. Import licensing and high tariffs protected local manufacturers and workers, and much more was produced domestically. In 1984, Labour Finance Minister Roger Douglas introduced radical free-market reforms known as “Rogernomics”. Import licences were removed, tariffs were progressively reduced and the New Zealand dollar was floated.

The reforms dramatically changed the economy. Imports became cheaper and competition from overseas intensified. Many factories closed and thousands of industrial jobs disappeared. For businesses, importing mass-produced goods from Asia became more profitable than manufacturing them in New Zealand. While there were benefits from greater competition and cheaper imports, there was also a price as domestic production was traded for dependence on overseas supply chains.

That bargain works reasonably well when international shipping is cheap, reliable and uninterrupted. Recent events have shown that global supply chains will not always be so. As New Zealand is a small market at the bottom of the world, when the global system is disrupted, distance suddenly matters.

Consider some of the imported essentials on which we depend: medicines; wheat and cereals for food and animal feed; specialised structural steel for construction; and phosphate, potash and other inputs for agriculture. The international freight costs effectively become an additional tax on everything on supermarket and hardware shelves.

The planet is unwell

The wars in Ukraine and Iran have demonstrated the danger of depending on unstable regions and suppliers for energy. Further, human-caused climate change is already producing profound and expensive consequences. The transition away from fossil fuels therefore makes sense because it is essential for stabilising the climate, and it makes New Zealand more resilient.

Renewable energy – solar, wind and hydro – has become cheaper than fossil fuels. Electrification also allows imported fuels to be replaced with domestically generated energy. New Zealand has abundant renewable resources, so why should we continue importing fossil fuel when we can increasingly generate the energy we need ourselves?

New Zealand spent about $9 billion on fuel imports in the year before the Gulf war began. More recently, fuel expenditure in the June quarter was two-thirds higher than a year earlier – equivalent to roughly 60% of all dairy export returns. The issue is not simply cost. It is the vulnerability created by our dependence on international fuel supplies, and the exposure of our economy and sovereignty to events over which we have little control.

Where is New Zealand?

Germany, the world’s third-largest economy, has now committed to phasing out fossil fuels by 2045. California, the world’s fourth-largest economy, has generated 100% clean electricity on nine out of every ten days so far in 2026, as the costs of solar, wind and batteries continue to fall. California has also just legalised balcony solar. Meanwhile, New Zealand has been moving in the opposite direction, with several promising climate policies weakened or abandoned.

Securing New Zealand’s oil supply requires dealing with international suppliers and the dominant fuel wholesalers. Further, New Zealand has enormous renewable electricity potential, yet the electricity market has concentrated considerable power in four large “gentailers”. New Zealand lags way behind in developing rooftop solar, in particular, as a result.

Electricity is not an ordinary commodity. It is essential infrastructure that underpins every modern activity, from households and hospitals to agriculture and industry. New Zealand therefore needs an electricity system designed around the public interest: abundant renewable generation, strong transmission and distribution networks, storage and flexibility, affordable prices and genuine competition. The goal should not be to maximise the profits of electricity companies. It should be to maximise the benefits that New Zealanders receive from our extraordinary renewable resources.

What is the public interest?

From a climate perspective, the objective is straightforward: reduce the amount of carbon entering the atmosphere. Building renewable energy is one of the principal ways to achieve that, especially when it actually displaces fossil fuels.

From a New Zealand perspective, the objective should be to:

• reduce our dependence on imports,
• increase our energy independence,
• strengthen domestic capabilities,
• build resilience, and
• ensure that the benefits of our natural resources flow to New Zealanders.

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