The world wants to electrify. But who will benefit?

COP31 just started yesterday in Türkiye, with one word set to dominate the climate debate: electrification. Governments are increasingly presenting it as a cornerstone of the transition away from fossil fuels, and today a new global finance coalition was launched to unlock investment in clean electrification in developing countries. While the ambition is welcome, there is a question that risks getting lost in the excitement: electrification for whom, powered by what, and at whose expense?

Put simply, electrification means replacing technologies that burn fossil fuels directly with alternatives powered by electricity. It means moving from petrol and diesel cars to electric vehicles, replacing gas boilers with electric heat pumps, and shifting industrial processes away from coal, oil and gas. The idea is to make electricity the main source of energy for our homes, transport and industries.

It is a crucial part of tackling climate change. But it is not, in itself, a climate solution.

The world has made real progress in cleaning up its power grids: roughly a third of global electricity now comes from renewables. But electricity is only part of the story. Much of the energy we consume comes from burning fuels directly, mostly in transport, heating and industries. These sectors have barely begun to change, which is why around 80 percent of the energy we use is still sourced from fossil fuels, the main driver of climate change.

With a certain breach of the 1.5 degree global temperature limit now upon us, we know this cannot continue. This is why the Turkish and Australian leaders of the climate talks have made electrification their flagship goal, pushing for electricity to meet 35 percent of final energy demand by 2035, up from around just 20 percent today.

The biggest energy crisis in decades has strengthened the case for this goal, as countries increasingly turn to electrification for energy security. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), if fuel-importing countries around the world electrify their economies considerably, their energy import bills could fall by up to $500 billion every year by 2035. Electrifying transportation alone can avoid the use of 18 million barrels of oil per day.

It’s a realistic goal. The IEA describes reaching it as “within striking distance,” a dose of optimism we badly need amid the doom and gloom of oil shocks and an increasingly unstable climate. But it’s worth asking the harder questions that the ‘35 x 35’ target raises. As with any technological pivot, the electrification goal could be met in ways that deepen the injustices of the current energy system. It should be judged not just by how much more electricity the world consumes, but by what powers it, who benefits, and who pays.

Right now, ‘35 x 35’ does not explicitly mention that electricity should come from renewables, not fossil or other forms of energy. Governments often cite rising electricity demand to justify new gas projects and keep coal plants running, locking in the very fossil fuels that electrification is meant to replace. The current target doesn’t close this well-worn loophole to delay a fossil fuel phaseout – in its ambiguity, it leaves it wide open.

Success must also be measured by whose lives electricity serves. A world that reaches 35 percent by electrifying steel plants and luxury car fleets, while leaving villages dark, will have hit its number and missed the point. Around 730 million people have no access to electricity at all, while more than 1 billion people in the Global South consume so little energy – either because it’s unreliable or unaffordable – that they’re living well below minimum modern standards.

Electrification must therefore prioritise groups who need it to escape poverty, not wealthy elites who already consume far more energy than they need. This means that rich countries must use less energy overall by prioritising efficiency. Satiating the needs of energy-hungry data centers must take the backseat, for example. Simply adding supply to meet unchecked demand won’t just fail to cut emissions – it will also create new injustices in developing countries where critical minerals are being extracted, including for renewable energy.

Electrification must deliver wider social benefits. This includes bringing reliable and affordable power to clinics, schools, farms and small businesses, which provide most of the world’s jobs. Rather than focusing on increasing sales of private electric vehicles, the goal must be to make clean public transport universal. Finally, electrification must lower energy bills and provide adequate cooling and heating for all households, regardless of income.

To get there, “35 by 35” needs real financial and technical support for developing countries. This is not just about fairness. Without it, the target cannot be delivered. Many countries will not be able to turn ambition into action without grants, highly concessional finance, debt relief and support for grids, storage and public infrastructure. A credible target must come with the means to reach it quickly and fairly.

Leaders at COP31 will not settle all of these questions in two weeks, but they can set the terms. Ministers should adopt ‘35 by 35’ with three conditions: that the new power comes from renewables and not from new fossil fuels; that it reaches those who need it most before those who already have plenty; and that wealthy, high-emitting countries pay their fair share of the cost. An electrification target that leaves these questions open invites the same delay and unfairness that makes the real target – a safer, more equitable world – even harder to reach.

Yes, we should electrify now, but we should pay more attention to how.

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