The illuminem wrapped on Carbon & Nature: What 2025 revealed — and 2026 will decide
· 10 min read
2025 marked a decisive shift across carbon and nature markets: credibility became the constraint…
…and the opportunity.
After years defined by rapid experimentation, bold commitments, and uneven quality, climate and nature finance entered a new phase. Markets began to reward integrity over volume, durability over speed, and verifiable outcomes over narrative. Whether in voluntary carbon markets, durable carbon removal, or reforestation investments, the same pattern emerged: demand concentrated at the high-quality end, while scrutiny intensified across supply.
For this illuminem Wrapped edition, we focused on three closely linked domains that materially evolved in 2025 - and that will strongly shape capital allocation and climate outcomes in 2026. We asked three practitioners operating at the heart of these markets to reflect on what truly changed last year, what lies ahead, and how their work fits into a rapidly maturing ecosystem.
The three topics explored are:
• Carbon markets, where integrity, transparency, and traceability began to directly determine price and liquidity
• Carbon removal, as durable pathways moved from pilots to megatonne-scale procurement and early regulation
• Reforestation, increasingly structured as a credible, investable real-world asset class
Insights are shared by three practitioners operating at the core of climate and nature markets:
• Open Forest Protocol, via CEO and Co-Founder Fred Fournier, building transparent, auditable infrastructure for high-integrity forest credits
• ClimeFi, via CEO and Co-Founder Paolo Piffaretti, structuring and de-risking portfolios of durable carbon removal
• Forests to Fortune, via Founder Alain Romero, turning reforestation into investable, impact-linked real-world assets
Together, their perspectives point to a clear inflection: 2025 was the year climate and nature markets stopped asking “does this exist?” and started asking “can this be trusted at scale?”
Written by Fred Fournier, the CEO and Co-Founder of Open Forest Protocol
In 2025, we observed a clear structural shift in the voluntary carbon market: integrity and transparency became the primary drivers of liquidity and price formation, rather than volume alone.
This shift is visible in market pricing. MSCI’s Carbon Credit Price Indexes have shown that higher-rated credits typically achieved higher prices than comparable lower-rated credits; in recent months, the high-integrity index traded at more than 4x the level of the low-integrity index (versus ~2x in 2024). In other words, integrity is being priced explicitly, reflecting the cost of uncertainty and the reputational and contractual risks that weak credits can create.
At the same time, activity remained more resilient than many narratives suggested. The market was stable on retirements but more selective on supply, with issuances moderating relative to prior quarters. Importantly, Sylvera also reports a clear quality premium emerging in ARR (afforestation, reforestation, and regeneration), with stronger pricing for high-quality units, consistent with buyers’ willingness to pay for credits with more defensible evidence and lower perceived reversal and over-crediting risk.
Demand-side behavior also became more “investment-grade.” MSCI has reported that credits rated BBB and above represented a materially higher share of retirements in 2025 than in earlier years, indicating that procurement teams are increasingly applying formal quality thresholds. This matters because it creates a widening gap: demand is concentrating at the top end of integrity, while the pipeline of credits that can meet those expectations is not yet scaling at the same pace. For project developers, this is a clear opportunity, but only if project design, safeguards, and MRV (Measurement, Reporting, and Verification) are built to withstand scrutiny.
Looking ahead to 2026, we expect the premium for integrity to hold, and likely widen. As Article 6 moves from policy to practice, the bar will keep rising on what buyers need to see: clear documentation, credible authorization, and end-to-end traceability that stands up to scrutiny. At the same time, we believe locally led projects are poised to outperform. When communities and local organizations have real ownership and operational control, projects tend to be executed with more continuity and accountability, reducing delivery risk, strengthening field data over time, and making it easier for buyers to engage directly with the people generating the outcomes.
For Open Forest Protocol, these trends reinforce a straightforward thesis: scale restoration finance by making high-integrity outcomes measurable, auditable, and transparent, with reliable ground evidence that can be trusted by buyers, regulators, and communities alike.
Written by Paolo Piffaretti, CEO and Co-Founder at ClimeFi
In 2025, the durable carbon removal market experienced a pivotal shift as the industry successfully transitioned away from small-scale pilots, entering a new chapter defined by megatonne offtake agreements.
Here are a few of the standout highlights from the year:
The CDR market jumps forward. Total durable carbon removal market commitments surged from roughly 12 million tonnes contracted at the end of 2024 up to almost 45 million tonnes by the end of December. While Microsoft drove the lion's share of purchase commitments last year, 2025 also saw a steady influx of new corporate buyers – including a number of higher-emitting companies with lower profit margins – into the market, albeit committing to significantly lower purchase volumes. Q3 2025 alone saw 11 unique buyers purchase carbon removal – a clear sign that the market is moving beyond just first-movers.
Early signs of international cooperation. Another key development in 2025 was the execution of the first CDR-backed Internationally Mitigation Transfer Outcome (ITMO) transfer under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. ClimeFi is proud to have structured one of the pilot transactions – there were three pilot projects between Norway and Switzerland in total – paving the way for future official carbon removal transactions, as well as for public-private partnerships more generally.
BiCRS dominates purchase volumes. Buyer preference for lower costs and quicker credit deliveries became increasingly apparent last year – perhaps in light of the delays faced by the more expensive direct air capture (DAC) solutions, which dominated the headlines in 2024. As a result, Biomass carbon removal and storage (BiCRS) technologies took centre stage in 2025. Indeed, according to ClimeFi analysis, BiCRS pathways, namely Biochar, Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS), and Bio-Oil, accounted for the vast majority of purchase commitments in each of the four quarters of last year.
With the stage well set in 2025, the coming year looks set to be marked by the first signs of a more disciplined, regulated, and pragmatic approach to carbon removal procurement. Among other trends, ClimeFi expects:
• Increased buyer pragmatism. The entrance of new buyers to the market should drive increased pragmatism in 2026, with more buyers doubling down on securing robust, cost-competitive streams of credit. This new mindset – treating CDR as a commodity and rationalising procurement – is a healthy sign that the industry is maturing.
• Increased Article 6 transactions. In 2026, ClimeFi anticipates an increase in Article 6-type transactions that will provide official channels for corresponding adjustments, bringing some much-needed certainty and credibility to the market. The groundwork was firmly laid in 2025.
• Increased clarity on regulation and guidance. To date, regulation and guidance frameworks have been largely unclear in the durable carbon removal market. 2026 looks set to change that: the EU CRCF framework should be fully operational by the end of the year, the EU ETS carbon removal integration review is in the pipeline, and the SBTi is set to launch version 2.0 of its Corporate Net-Zero Standard – all of which could create significant tailwinds for corporate carbon removal purchases.
These shifts in market dynamic signal that carbon removal is moving beyond just a niche sustainability effort to a fundamental pillar of the global net-zero economy. The sector certainly has some way to go – but 2026 could well be the year that we see durable carbon removal emerge as a critical asset class globally.
For deeper insights into the carbon removal market in 2025, please check out ClimeFi’s recently published ‘2025 CDR Market: A Year in Review’.
Written by Alain Romero, Co-Founder at Forest to Fortune
The reforestation and nature-based investment landscape evolved significantly in 2025, supported by strong growth in the real-world-asset (RWA) impact investment market and rising expectations for transparency and integrity. Forests to Fortune advanced its work as an ecosystem developer by structuring nature-based RWAs and enabling crypto-to-nature investment pathways. This article reflects on key developments of the past year and highlights the trends shaping the reforestation sector in 2026.
The year 2025 marked a turning point for reforestation, with rising institutional interest and stronger governance elevating the sector’s credibility. Nature-based solutions continued gaining traction as essential contributors to climate resilience and biodiversity restoration. At the same time, evolving global standards and monitoring tools prompted clearer expectations for environmental integrity, social benefit, and measurable outcomes.
Impact investing reached an estimated $1.5 trillion in global assets under management in 2025, positioning real-world assets — including forests and restoration landscapes — as a rapidly expanding category.1 Investors increasingly sought tangible, uncorrelated assets capable of delivering environmental and financial value, reinforcing the role of nature-based RWAs as a legitimate investment avenue.
Across the sector, expectations for data quality, permanence, and community benefit intensified. Enhanced verification frameworks and digital measurement tools improved transparency for both investors and project developers. Although these shifts introduced additional complexity, they ultimately strengthened trust in reforestation as a credible impact asset class and reduced information asymmetries that had historically hindered market growth.
Throughout 2025, Forests to Fortune focused on transforming reforestation into a green, investable real-world asset, integrating scientific rigor with financial innovation. Key advancements included:
• Expanding a pipeline of high-integrity restoration projects
• Developing tradable structures tied to ecological outcomes
• Strengthening community-centered revenue models
• Deploying digital verification and fintech rails to improve traceability and liquidity
These efforts support a more transparent, investable, and socially aligned approach to reforestation.
A major milestone this year was the completion of Coinspaid’s due diligence on our company. This approval now allows our clients to diversify cryptocurrency holdings into nature-based RWAs, bridging digital finance with ecological regeneration. For a growing community of crypto investors seeking real-world impact, this creates a secure and verifiable pathway to convert digital assets into long-term environmental value.
Three trends will likely define the next evolution of the sector:
Institutionalization of impact-linked RWAs, driven by investor demand for measurable and durable outcomes
Convergence of global reporting and verification frameworks, enabling clearer cross-border comparability
Digitization of natural assets, expanding investor access and accelerating capital flows into landscape-scale restoration
Forests to Fortune aims to remain at this intersection—helping transform nature-based restoration into a credible, scalable, and transformative investment category for the decade ahead.
Across carbon markets, carbon removal, and reforestation, the same signal is unmistakable: sustainability is entering its credibility phase.
In 2026, ambition alone will no longer unlock capital or demand. Buyers, investors, and regulators are converging around what can be measured, verified, governed, and defended over time. Integrity is no longer a differentiator — it is the minimum requirement.
The implications are profound. High-quality projects and platforms will attract disproportionate demand and long-term partnerships, while weaker offerings risk being stranded. The winners will be those building infrastructure for trust — from traceability and MRV to durable governance and community alignment.
If 2025 was the year climate and nature markets matured, 2026 will be the year they choose who scales — and who doesn’t.
illuminem Voices is a democratic space presenting the thoughts and opinions of leading Sustainability & Energy writers, their opinions do not necessarily represent those of illuminem.
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1. Global Impact Investing Network (GIIN). 2025 Impact Investor Market Sizing Report. https://thegiin.org/research/publication/market-sizing
(Referenced to support the $1.5 trillion impact investing market size figure.)
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