The Global ESGT Megatrends 2026-2027 | #2 – Surging exponential technologies
· 12 min read
This is article 3 of 7 in The Global ESGT Megatrends 2026-2027. Here is article 2.
We have entered the fifth, or what I call the Exponential Industrial Revolution. In addition to all things AI, there are large buckets of other exponential technologies surging all around us, in biotech, advanced materials, energy, robotics, communications, quantum and so much more, with profound implications for global risk and opportunity.
And there is another kind of tech insurgency, that of people, communities and nations placed into real or perceived disequilibrium by the pace of (and concentration of spoils from) the Exponential Industrial Revolution. And this disequilibrium in turn feeds into two other major converging phenomena, one geopolitical and the other human.
Surging exponential tech feeds into (and is fed by) deep geoeconomic and geopolitical competition, especially between the US and China, leaving the rest of the world either struggling with how to deal with this big power tech rivalry or seeking ways to ignore, overcome or leapfrog it by developing their own tech, e.g. sovereign AI (in which a nation or group controls its own full AI tech stack).
Surging exponential tech is also deeply disrupting society and human behaviour in ways pervasive and vast, creating heretofore unseen human, cultural and societal disequilibrium, whether it has to do with the environmental and communal impact of data centres or the psychological and behavioural impacts of turbocharged AI, devices and surveillance.
Through this Megatrend #2 of 5, we will explore several of these sub-trends and will conclude with several important leadership tools to meet this ongoing dramatic moment in human history. The sub-trends we explore are:
Before we delve into the sub-trends, let's tie this Megatrend #2 back to the overall theme of this year's Megatrends, fragmentation, accumulation and acceleration.
As pockets of frontier and exponential tech development continue to accelerate in terms of invention, development and implementation, accumulating especially in advanced economies like the US, China, parts of Europe, Asia and the Gulf States (but also in important ways in leading African and Latin American economies), we are witnessing the greater accumulation of wealth and power in some of these locations (Silicon Valley) through the growth of a new tech power class I call the "Tech Masters of the Universe" in my book Governing Pandora. The table below shows a few associated names.
Source: Andrea Bonime-Blanc, Governing Pandora: Leading in the Age of Generative AI and Exponential Technology, Georgetown University Press 2026.
As tech acceleration continues, we are also witnessing tech fragmentation in one very specific and important way: asymmetry. The exponential tech revolution is enabling access by anyone anywhere to certain "godlike" weapons of war and amazing tools of progress. We are seeing this asymmetric adoption in otherwise non-tech centres like Sudan, where highly sophisticated drone warfare is part of their catastrophic civil war, and we're seeing it in the deployment of tech for good like drones for blood and other critical healthcare deliveries in Rwanda and the democratisation of financial tools via phone mobile money, like M-Pesa has achieved in Kenya.
Thus, at the same time as there is great acceleration of innovation, and accumulation of power and wealth in some quarters, there is also a real opportunity for tech power to migrate to unexpected corners of the world, which may in turn enable their leapfrogging to more advanced technologies.
I am even more confident today than I was five months ago when my book Governing Pandora was first published that we are at the beginning of the Fifth, or Exponential, Industrial Revolution. See graphic below.
Source: Andrea Bonime-Blanc, Governing Pandora: Leading in the Age of Generative AI and Exponential Technology, Georgetown University Press 2026.
The Exponential Industrial Revolution is happening not only because of exponential AI, but also because of the blossoming of many other exponential technologies that are developing, converging, affecting and accelerating one another. Above is a graphic depicting some of these technologies and below is a graphic depicting the five key attributes of exponential technology.
Source: Andrea Bonime-Blanc, Governing Pandora: Leading in the Age of Generative AI and Exponential Technology, Georgetown University Press 2026.
So, as you ponder next steps on your use of AI and other tech, personally, organisationally, operationally, consider the following questions:
Most importantly for the vast majority of humanity: how will these exponential technologies and frontiers affect your work, your livelihood, your community, your rights and obligations?
Most reports make it clear that the tech race, especially the exponential tech race and all that goes with it, from rare earth minerals to lithography machines, silicon wafers to humanoid robots, algorithms to synthetic biology, rocket components to space-based data centres, is both creating and reflecting a deep global geostrategic disequilibrium, with the US and China pretty much in a tech race in terms of innovation, R&D, and implementation, though achieving it in very different ways, and with the rest of the world struggling to keep up, influence or participate in a meaningful way.
National and regional tech regulatory and governance regimes differ substantially geographically, but none is adapted to the exponential pace of tech change.
To the outside world, China is implementing an apparently coherent and strategically deliberate path of being the responsible tech leader, offering a vision of "AI for All" and "a symphony of international cooperation" as Xi presented at the Shanghai AI Conference in July 2026. Domestically (and probably internationally), however, China uses tech in the most coordinated and repressive way to keep tabs on and control its population and more.
The US, while still the tech market leader worldwide, is losing some of its lustre because of the current administration's alternating (zigzagging) approach to overseeing exponential tech development. On the one hand, the administration is letting tech develop unfettered without serious regulatory oversight (see the White House 2025 AI Executive Order); on the other, it is intervening abruptly and unpredictably based on political/ideological considerations and not good governance (see the Anthropic Fable saga). This capricious approach to exponential tech governance is not sustainable from a safety or national security standpoint and undermines the longer-term reputation and soft power that comes with being, for now, the leading tech power.
Is the world witnessing a heated rivalry between these two countries that will allow unfettered and uncoordinated super powerful tech to negatively impact our collective global safety (e.g. from out-of-control agentic AI or synthetic biological weapons), or will the US and China lead a global rapprochement on exponential tech? Will they be heated rivals or global stewards? The jury, for now, is out, and uncertainty and danger are growing daily.
While the US and China have their tech arms race, there is another set of phenomena taking place globally, what could be called a thousand (or a million) points of light on responsible tech from civil society, NGOs, international organisations, thinktanks and community efforts that are attempting to address some of the governance, ethical, risk and impact issues that many governments seem unable to. While this is not perfect, it is certainly better than the absence of such initiatives.
There are three types of such "New Tech Insurgents": from People and Communities, Visionary Guardians, and Humancentric Innovators. Let's dig in.
New Tech Insurgents – people and communities
We are witnessing serious backlash from communities around the world against tech developments such as the construction of data centres sapping water, energy and land from local communities (and perhaps jobs and livelihoods), as developments growing throughout the US and other countries demonstrate. We are also seeing increasing awareness and action (in the form of reporting, protests and litigation) regarding the increasing evidence of serious health and safety dangers from AI products, and more powerful social media tech (like Meta glasses), against tech companies that are seen as exploiting human vulnerabilities, data and privacy.
New Tech Insurgents – visionary guardians
I have a group I call the "Tech Guardians of the Universe" in my book Governing Pandora. These are people, communities, organisations and yes, even some government agencies, that are more dedicated to the responsible deployment of advanced technologies, thinking about, understanding and acting upon the impacts and needs of key stakeholders, children, customers, users, employees and others.
I call them Visionary Guardians when they are not deniers of tech or luddites or what Marc Andreessen disparagingly calls "tech doomers". No, quite to the contrary, these are constructive, informed and often tech-savvy actors, like Pope Leo XIV, who recently released a revolutionary encyclical called Magnifica Humanitas: On Safeguarding the Human Person in the Time of Artificial Intelligence. Below is a very short list of some of these organisations, as there are literally millions of them around the world.
Source: Andrea Bonime-Blanc, Governing Pandora: Leading in the Age of Generative AI and Exponential Technology, Georgetown University Press 2026.
New Tech Insurgents – humancentric innovators
This is what I call the more responsible "Tech Masters of the Universe" in my book Governing Pandora. These folks and entities are not just innovators but "Humancentric Innovators" because they are both at the bleeding edge of tech innovation, inventing and developing the latest in AI, biotech or robotics, and simultaneously conscious and conscientious of the human and other stakeholder impacts.
This category of tech insurgent (if we can call them that) includes the likes of Dario Amodei and Anthropic (who were founded as a B-Corp on the principle of stakeholder care as part of their frontier tech work), and Demis Hassabis, Nobel Laureate and Google DeepMind co-founder (who recently published an AI safety blueprint proposal).
We conclude this article with a few tactical leadership to-dos that can be implemented in your community, organisation or stakeholder relationships right now to deal with this continuing onslaught of exponential tech risk and opportunity. Below is a sneak preview of what we will explore in the final article in this 7-part series, titled: The Leadership ESGT 2026-2027 Futureproofing Blueprint, including what I call the Exponential Governance Mindset, for which I share a graphic below and will provide greater detail in that final article of this series.
Source: Andrea Bonime-Blanc, Governing Pandora: Leading in the Age of Generative AI and Exponential Technology, Georgetown University Press 2026.
Develop an Exponential Governance Mindset. Whatever and wherever your role, board level, management or frontline worker, reorient and reset yourself for the Exponential Industrial Revolution, adopting a 360-tech governance approach. See graphic above and further explanation of the Exponential Governance Mindset as applied to the field of Biomimetics here.
Ingrain an ethos of tech responsibility. No matter what your role and where, oversight, operations, invention, it is essential that you and your organisation adopt a coherent and practical ethos and culture of tech responsibility throughout the tech lifecycle.
Educate, educate, educate. Yourself, your family, your community, your workplace. Depending on the tech that intersects most with your life (and AI will definitely be one), pick up reliable sources of information to engage in continuous practical learning.
Focus on talent and labour transformation. No matter where you work and what your work entails, a huge focus for everyone, especially boards and C-suites, is to develop next-generation talent and labour upskilling and transformation plans, including forging public/private/civil society partnerships.
illuminem Voices is a democratic space presenting the opinions of leading Sustainability Thought Leaders, their views do not necessarily represent those of illuminem.
The world needs sustainability knowledge. At illuminem, no interest group or shareholder can influence our work. Thank you for supporting our mission to make high-quality and independent sustainability information free for all. Every contribution helps. Thank you for donating today.
illuminem briefings
AI · Corporate Governance
illuminem briefings
Shared Mobility · Mobility Tech
illuminem briefings
AI · Public Governance
The Wall Street Journal
Shared Mobility · Mobility Tech
The Wall Street Journal
AI · Ethical Governance
South China Morning Post
Electric Vehicles · Green Tech