This summer isn’t breaking heat records — yet. Wait until El Nino kicks in, scientists say

illuminem summarises for you the essential news of the day, reviewed by our editorial team. Read the full piece on Associated Press or enjoy below:

🗞️ Driving the news: Despite record-breaking heat waves, wildfires and ocean temperatures, 2026 is currently only the third-hottest year on record
• Scientists warn that a strengthening El Niño could push global temperatures even higher in the second half of the year, potentially making 2026 the hottest year ever recorded

🔭 The context: The planet is currently behind the record years of 2024 and 2025, but climate scientists say the outlook is rapidly changing
• Berkeley Earth researcher Zeke Hausfather estimates there is now a 35% chance that 2026 surpasses 2024 as the warmest year on record, up significantly from earlier forecasts
• The expected El Niño event is likely to amplify global temperatures by releasing additional ocean heat into the atmosphere
• However, scientists stress that the extreme heat already experienced this summer is primarily driven by human-caused climate change, not El Niño, whose effects typically emerge months later

🌍 Why it matters for the planet: Extreme heat, wildfires and droughts are increasingly affecting regions that historically experienced milder conditions
• Scientists warn that rising temperatures are intensifying fire weather, increasing health risks and putting pressure on ecosystems, infrastructure and economies

⏭️ What’s next: The strength of the upcoming El Niño would be a key factor in determining whether 2026 breaks temperature records
• Scientists expect 2027 could become even hotter, potentially surpassing current records by a significant margin
• Governments now face growing pressure to accelerate both emissions reductions and climate adaptation measures as extreme events become more frequent

💬 One quote: “The driver of the record warmth is climate change in the background. And it’s a much larger contribution than El Niño.” — Zachary Labe, Climate Central

📈 One stat: Scientists estimate a 35% chance that 2026 becomes the hottest year on record, compared with only 7% in March

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