Rare earth: why 2025 will be a tipping point for circularity

A modern-day gold rush is on to unearth the metals needed to power the next generation of energy solutions. Extracted from desolate hillsides and mined by robots vacuuming the ocean floor, rare earth elements (REE) are the hidden backbone of efforts to electrify transportation and harness renewable energy. Clean energy technologies such as wind turbines and electric vehicles (EVs) require rare earth elements to operate. The entire global energy transition hinges on our ability to access, process, and utilise these strategically important elements, yet a widening gap between supply and demand is threatening to derail progress on decarbonisation. 

The widening gap between supply and demand 

Global supply chains are struggling to meet demand, a challenge that will skyrocket in the coming years. The U.S. expects demand to grow as much as 600% over the next few decades. Countries with potential reserves, including the U.S., are lagging far behind in capturing market share due to limited mining operations and a lack of domestic processing infrastructure. China holds a near monopoly, supplying 60% and processing nearly 90% of the world’s rare earths. The U.S. currently has only one active rare earth mine and no ability to process the ore, so it must be shipped to China for refining and manufacturing.

It’s time to expand our approach

President Donald Trump’s move, via executive order, to establish America as a leading producer and processor of non-fuel minerals, including rare earths, will help shore up domestic supply in the long term, but we also must expand our thinking on how we source these critical elements for the short- and long-term. Extracting, processing, and refining rare earth metals is resource-intensive. Opening a new mine can take decades - time we don’t have. 

An advanced recycling revolution is taking hold 

But innovators and entrepreneurs are stepping forward, scaling up advanced recycling technologies to recover rare earth metals for reuse in the critical technologies driving clean energy adoption. The beginnings of a rare earth recycling revolution have taken hold, and I believe 2025 will be a tipping point – the year the world finally begins to embrace circularity in the REE supply chain. 

Circularity must be an inevitability. Millions of wind turbines, EVs, and hybrid vehicles will approach the end of their life cycles within the next decade. Disposing of these products without recovering the rare earth elements they contain would be a significant loss, a terrible waste of valuable and scarce materials. We can’t let that happen.

2025: a breakthrough year

2025 will be the year we see most recycled rare earth elements come from clean technologies. Global leaders and policymakers should take note. By recovering rare earths from end-of-life products, we can reintroduce them into the supply chain, reducing our dependence on overseas supplies, securing critical minerals for the energy transition, and building a more sustainable and resilient industry in the U.S.

Investment is helping to drive rapid growth, with industries expanding their use of rare earth elements. We can expect emerging drivers of demand, like robotics, to make recycling and reuse even more critical, further strengthening the economics of a circular supply chain. 

No doubt, there are significant challenges on the road ahead. Recycling efforts are still in their infancy.  According to the International Energy Agency, less than one percent of rare earth elements are being recycled today. Despite a push in battery recycling, the U.S. lags behind other countries in addressing REE recycling potential. 

Pivotal moment

The U.S. stands at a pivotal moment. Will we invest in a closed-loop supply chain or continue to cede dominance - and our energy security - to China? 

The recycling of rare earth elements is not just an environmental imperative - it is a strategic necessity. Delaying progress in this critical sector will only deepen supply chain vulnerabilities, worsen environmental conditions, and jeopardise growing industries. The gap between supply and demand is only growing larger. The time to act is now. 

The energy transition may rest on the shoulders of these unsung heroes. With investments in infrastructure and technology and bold policy measures, we can reduce dependence on foreign suppliers, build stronger domestic supply chains, and create a future where economic growth aligns with sustainability.