Positive path dependence: a blueprint for durable energy transitions

Introduction: overcoming short-termism in addressing the climate crisis

In the face of accelerating climate change and the daunting challenge of decarbonisation, the need for enduring, systemic change in energy systems has never been more urgent. 

However, achieving durable transitions—those that persist beyond electoral cycles, economic fluctuations, and public opinion shifts—requires more than bold goals and technological fixes. It requires harnessing positive path dependence: the idea that policies and innovations, if strategically designed, can create self-reinforcing change that becomes increasingly resilient and irreversible over time.

This concept offers a powerful antidote to the short-termism that often plagues climate policy. Specifically, how can we embed principles of “stickiness,” “entrenchment,” and “expansion” into climate interventions to deliver long-term, intergenerationally fair energy transitions?

A framework for positive path dependence

Lasting change for climate action is not simply a matter of scaling up innovations, or innovating new technologies. It involves designing interventions that first ‘stick’ - by locking in immediate gains - then become ‘entrenched’ in institutional and societal norms, and finally expand their reach through cultural, economic, and technological diffusion. According to the work of Kelly Levin & others:

• Stickiness refers to early policy decisions that are difficult to reverse, such as subsidies, regulations, or infrastructure investments that immediately shape behaviour. These are sometimes deemed ‘policy windows’, where politics, technology, and public advocacy merge to draw attention to a particular issue, providing a springboard for longer term change. 

• Entrenchment follows when these interventions alter incentives, build coalitions, and generate co-benefits, making reversal politically or economically costly. Examples of this include low carbon coalitions, such as citizen-led community energy initiatives such as EWS Schönau, which promoted the role of citizen and community ownership of solar energy in Germany, promoting the social and environmental co-benefits of solar energy. 

• Expansion occurs as the new practices or technologies diffuse across society, becoming normalised and increasingly beneficial over time. Academics such as Jan Rosenow advocate for a ‘demand-side’ focus for renewable energy policy, instead of just focusing on ‘supply-side’, which may lead to an arbitrary supply of energy products misaligned with actual demand. Importantly, Rosenow posits that behavioural shifts drive demand, including increasing societal interest in decarbonisation and reducing material consumption, which underscores the influence of behavioural patterns and feedback loops in generating durable long-term energy transitions. 

This sequence is non-linear but forms a mutually reinforcing positive feedback loop with each stage strengthening the next. This virtuous cycle driven by the Stickiness-Entrechment-Expansion Framework proliferates clean technology adoption through three key mechanisms.

1. "Learning by doing" highlights that as a technology is produced and deployed more frequently, the people and processes involved become more efficient, leading to cost reductions and improved performance.

2. Economies of scale formed by the expansion of new practices and technologies allow manufacturers to lower the cost per unit, due to efficiencies gained from larger-scale operations and more streamlined supply chains improving the technology's cost-competitiveness.

3. Network effects and complementary innovations refer to how the wider adoption of a technology creates a supportive ecosystem such as new infrastructure, jobs and tangential technologies, further enhancing its value and stickiness in the broader ecosystem. 

For example, studies from Australia show that when one household installs rooftop solar, neighbours are more likely to follow. Known as the “neighbourhood effect”, this visibility creates a form of social proof, making the technology seem familiar, feasible, and desirable.

In 2018, this effect accounted for nearly 18% of new solar installations in Australia. Similar patterns are emerging with electric vehicles and energy-efficient appliances. Making low-carbon technologies visible - and tying them to social status or local identity—can accelerate the “expansion” phase of energy transitions, generating durable, long-term path dependence for decarbonisation. 

Case study: the inflation reduction act (IRA)

The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) stands as a prime example of leveraging "policy windows" to enact lasting change. Seizing a period of high inflation and with the 2021 energy crisis still fresh in public memory, the IRA’s strategy reflected the need to address immediate concerns whilst striving for long-term decarbonisation goals.

The IRA’s strategy was twofold: it offered substantial tax credits and incentives for consumers to adopt clean energy technologies, aimed at reducing household energy bills and creating new manufacturing jobs. This immediate relief served as a powerful incentive. Simultaneously, these measures were designed to proliferate clean energy technologies, fostering a self-reinforcing cycle of innovation and adoption that promotes enduring climate action.

Case study: german solar feed-in tariffs

Germany’s solar revolution is a prime example of positive path dependence in action. The introduction of feed-in tariffs offered long-term contracts to solar producers, allowing them to sell excess energy back to the grid at retail - not wholesale - rates. This seemingly technical decision had profound effects.

• Stickiness: Guaranteed income streams, via feed-in tariffs, de-risked investments in solar PV, encouraging early adopters and signalling government commitment.

• Entrenchment: As uptake grew, low-carbon coalitions formed between industry, researchers, and civil society, driving innovation and reducing costs, such as EWS Schönau.

• Expansion: Solar became a visible, normalised part of the German landscape, reinforced by public pride, media narratives, and regional identity. Solar Towns like Freiburg, implemented visible, community-wide solar projects - on schools, public buildings, and homes - turning the built environment into a showcase for renewable energy.

The result? A durable shift in both the economics and culture of energy production, making backtracking politically and socially unpalatable. In this sense, it is a great demonstration of positive path dependence. 

Anticipatory leadership and policy entrepreneurship

Driving such transitions requires more than policy design. It calls for anticipatory leadership - the ability to look beyond the election cycle and design for long-term resilience. Fostering a culture of strategic foresight amongst decision makers is critical for future-proofing key policy decisions by promoting policymakers to anticipate diverse future scenarios and potential impacts, rather than merely reacting to present crises. This proactive approach enables the design of robust, long-term strategies that can adapt to uncertainty and foster systemic, durable transformations.

The OECD recently published a report exploring this, suggesting the systematic use of anticipatory governance in government is not widespread, and its processes are insufficiently connected with policy development and innovation. 

In the fight against climate change, this leads to a focus on point solutions, not systemic change, which, at best, will only lead to piecemeal approaches to addressing a much broader problem. It will also lead to short-termism and parochialism in the assessment of decarbonisation pathways.

Lessons for policymakers

1. Design for durability: Choose instruments that are hard to reverse - like long-term contracts or infrastructure investments.

2. Link short-term co-benefits to long-term goals: Policies should create economic, health, or social advantages today while pushing the system toward net-zero.

3. Build coalitions early: Engage industry, academia, and civil society to generate buy-in and momentum.

4. Leverage visibility and culture: Use media, architecture, and branding to normalise new technologies and behaviours.

5. Anticipate opposition: Design policy mixes that build support over time and reduce the costs of future resistance.

Climate transitions will not be won through innovation alone. They will be secured through strategy - by embedding positive path dependence into the design of climate policy. If we can create stickiness, entrenchment, and expansion, we can not only overcome short-termism but also build a future that is durable, fair, and sustainable across generations. The blueprint is here. It’s time to build.

illuminem Voices is a democratic space presenting the thoughts and opinions of leading Sustainability & Energy writers, their opinions do not necessarily represent those of illuminem.