Finding balance with nature

Introduction

In 2024, Planet Earth exceeded 1.5°C (2.7°F) above pre-industrial levels for the first time—a concerning milestone in global climate change. This warming trend continues, and without significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, global temperatures are projected to surpass 2°C (3.6°F before 2050. Some estimates suggest a rise of 2.5°C (4.5°F) by mid-century, while more extreme projections indicate an increase of nearly 3°C (5.4°F) by 2100 if decisive action is not taken. A recent study provides a thorough examination that reinforces these trends.

Although these projections carry some degree of uncertainty, the potential impacts of climate change are well-documented, and many scenarios predict catastrophic consequences. The ongoing geopolitical instability, competing policy proposals, and other existential crises further complicate the global response to this issue, making effective action more challenging. Earth operates as a complex system composed of numerous interconnected subsystems, many of which interact in unpredictable ways. This complexity makes precise forecasting difficult, if not impossible. Nevertheless, the convergence of these factors suggests that humanity may be facing a so-called "perfect storm"—a phrase that, despite its frequent use, aptly describes the unprecedented challenges ahead.

We are inundated with an overwhelming amount of information—ranging from verified scientific data to misinformation and deliberate disinformation. The purpose of this article is to present key factual and relevant insights regarding Planet Earth and human society as they stand today.

Background

The risks associated with climate change and environmental degradation are diverse and far-reaching (Figure 1). The survey question asked was, “Please estimate the likely impact (severity) of the following risks over a 2-year and 10-year period.”

Figure 1 - Global risks ranked by severity over 2 and 10 years (Source: World Economic Forum Global Risks Perception Survey 2024-2025)

Catastrophic events, increasingly intensified by human-driven climate change, are occurring with greater frequency and severity (Figure 2).

Figure 2 - Global climate-related disasters frequency (Source: EM-DAT, CRE / UCLouvain, Brussels, Belgium in IMF Climate Change Dashboard Climate-related Disasters Frequency)

In parallel, progress toward the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) (Figure 3) is lagging. Currently, only 17 percent of these goals are on track, highlighting the urgency of more effective global action.

Figure 3 - United Nations Strategic Development Goals progress to be achieved by 2030 (Source: 2024 SDG Report)

The cumulative impact of these crises is profoundly harmful to the interconnected natural and human systems upon which all life depends. As environmental and societal challenges become more complex, the need for coordinated, science-based solutions become ever more pressing.

Increasing risks

While the United States has experienced the largest absolute economic losses due to climate-related disasters, the most severe overall impacts disproportionately affect the most vulnerable populations—those with the least resources to mitigate or recover from these crises (Figure 4). Early warning devices are helping to save lives and protect livelihoods.

Figure 4 - Reported deaths and economic losses by decade due to weather-related disasters (Source: World Meteorological Organization, Economic costs of weather-related disasters soars but early warnings save lives)

Financial markets reflect these growing risks, with recent actuarial analyses indicating rising costs for insurance—particularly in agriculture, property, health, and life sectors. In some regions, insurers have entirely withdrawn from the market due to unsustainable catastrophic losses. This trend underscores the increasing financial strain climate change imposes on global economies.

Significantly, The Institute and Faculty of Actuaries developed a planetary solvency risk impact and likelihood matrix (Figure 5) with definitions to assess current and future risks to financial impact/GDP (gross domestic product) losses, human mortality, climate, nature, and societal.

Figure 5 - Illustrative planetary solvency risk impact and likelihood definitions (Source: Institute and Faculty of Actuaries, Planetary Solvency – finding our balance with nature, Figures 12, Appendix I)

Using this matrix, The Institute assessed the current status of the economy, climate, nature, society, and their projected risks and likelihood by 2050 (Figure 6). The projected risks to severe and catastrophic/extreme within the next 25 years—defies comprehension.

Figure 6 - Planetary Solvency Dashboard, current and projected by 2050 (Source: Institute and Faculty of Actuaries, Planetary Solvency – finding our balance with nature, Figure 11)

An assessment of human mortality is not included because very little research has been conducted on the potential for large-scale loss of life in relation to these interconnected risks and on which to make an assessment. The estimated cost of limiting climate change to 2.0°C (3.6°F) by 2050 is $6 trillion, whereas the projected climate-induced economic damage stands at $38 trillion per year, equivalent to a 17 percent global GDP loss. From an economic perspective, an investment yielding a sixfold return per dollar spent would be considered highly favorable.

A recent report bluntly states: “The current market-led approach to mitigating climate and nature risks is not delivering.” The authors warn of an increasing risk of severe societal disruption—termed Planetary Insolvency—as the global economic system continues to drive environmental degradation and warming. To address this crisis, they propose Planetary Insolvency risk management assessments as a tool for building a more resilient and sustainable future.

Assessing the precise monetary value of nature remains a challenge, yet its estimated annual contribution stands at $179 trillion, compared to a global GDP of $105 trillion in 2023. Despite this, nature remains undervalued in economic models, where financial metrics often take precedence over ecological sustainability.

Additionally, the Earth’s critical tipping points—thresholds beyond which environmental changes become irreversible—are already being exceeded. Alarmingly, much of the data reflecting these breaches is already over two years old (Figure 7), suggesting that current projections may be underestimating the speed and severity of these changes.

Figure 7 - Nine planetary boundaries or “tipping points”, six of the nine have already been transgressed (Source: World Economic Forum based on data published in Science – Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries.)

Conclusion

Where do these worsening trends in our natural and human environments ultimately lead? While the precise outcome remains uncertain, the overwhelming evidence is both indisputable and deeply concerning. Hope alone is not a viable strategy, nor is dismissing the extensive body of scientific research. Despite assertions from the Trump administration’s Environmental Protection Agency that climate change does not pose a significant threat and potentially criminalising groups, the scale of these global existential risks makes inaction an untenable choice.

The health and stability of both our planet and human civilisation depend on effective, coordinated action at a global scale. The choices we make today will determine whether we succeed or fail—together. This is a call to collective action, urging us to build a sustainable well-being economy that prioritizes resilience, equity, and environmental stewardship for the future of all life on Earth.

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