Energy at a crossroads: navigating uncertain futures

A fractured global energy landscape

If there is one thing recent events have made clear, it is that energy security and geopolitics are now inseparable. The war in Ukraine, once a regional conflict, has rippled across the world, driving energy price volatility, supply chain disruptions, and a frantic reordering of global alliances. The knock-on effects of this crisis, paired with economic turbulence in China, increasing trade barriers, and intensifying climate disasters, have left businesses and governments scrambling for long-term energy solutions in a world that refuses to stand still.

Take, for example, the high-profile meeting between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy—a supposed diplomatic effort that quickly devolved into political theatrics. It was a stark reminder of how fragile international relationships are, especially when energy and critical resources are involved. Just a few years ago, Zelenskyy and Putin were set to discuss a minerals trade deal—a deal that could have stabilized supply chains and reshaped the European energy map. Instead, war broke out. The result? Europe, desperate to break free from Russian gas, faced skyrocketing energy prices, rationing, and an urgent push toward renewables.

Meanwhile, global energy markets remain vulnerable to cascading disruptions. Houthi attacks on shipping routes in the Red Sea are delaying fuel supplies. China’s economic downturn, combined with rising U.S. and European tariffs, threatens clean energy manufacturing. And across the West, populist movements are putting pressure on policymakers to prioritize national interests over global energy cooperation.

We are at a strategic inflection point. The choices made today will shape whether the future is one of fragmented energy blocs, where every country fights for its own security, or one of market-driven innovation, where new technologies and business models accelerate the energy transition.

In such a turbulent world, traditional energy forecasting is obsolete. Rigid, linear projections cannot account for wars, supply chain crises, or political realignments. Instead, businesses and policymakers need a tool that embraces uncertainty, tests strategies against different possibilities, and builds resilience into decision-making.

That tool is scenario planning—a strategic framework that prepares for multiple energy futures, rather than relying on outdated assumptions about a single “most likely” path forward.

The case for scenario planning

Energy transitions have never been purely technological. They are shaped by politics, economics, and social forces—all of which are in flux. The old method of making energy plans based on past trends no longer works. We need to think in scenarios, preparing for multiple potential futures rather than clinging to a single, fragile expectation.

Why scenario planning matters now more than ever

1. Resilience – Testing policies against different scenarios helps governments and businesses prepare for shocks before they happen.
2. Risk Anticipation – Supply chain bottlenecks, climate disasters, or trade restrictions can be identified early, not just reacted to.
3. Strategic Agility – Instead of being caught off guard, policymakers and investors can pivot quickly when conditions change.
4. Holistic Thinking – Energy isn’t just about electricity or oil; it’s connected to trade, security, climate, and economic stability. Scenario planning helps integrate these factors.

One of the most effective frameworks for scenario planning today comes from the World Energy Council’s 2024 “Rocks and Rivers” scenarios. These two divergent futures provide a blueprint for how energy transitions might unfold in a deeply divided world.

Two diverging paths: Rocks vs. Rivers

The Rocks and Rivers framework explores two starkly different ways the energy transition could unfold. One is driven by nationalist energy policies and trade wars; the other by market forces and technological breakthroughs.

1. “Rocks”: A World of Fragmentation and Energy Nationalism

In this scenario, energy becomes a tool of geopolitical leverage. Governments hoard resources, restrict trade, and reinforce national energy production, often at the cost of climate commitments. Instead of global cooperation, the world splinters into self-interested energy blocs, with each country prioritizing security over sustainability.

Key Features of the “Rocks” Scenario:

• Energy Nationalism – Governments push for domestic fossil fuel production, blocking clean energy trade.
• Supply Chain Fragmentation – “Friend-shoring” and tariffs on critical minerals make energy transitions slower and more expensive.
• Populism & Subsidies – To maintain social stability, many governments artificially lower energy prices, making the transition away from fossil fuels politically difficult.
• Climate Action Stalls – Economic and security priorities delay decarbonization efforts.

Real-World Signals of the “Rocks” Future:

• Russia’s energy war with Europe and the global scramble for LNG.
• The U.S.-China decoupling, which threatens access to clean energy technologies.
• The rise of protectionist governments in Europe and the U.S., pushing back against aggressive climate policies.

In this future, energy transitions happen unevenly, dictated by political allegiances rather than economic or environmental necessity.

2. “Rivers”: A Market-Driven Energy Transition

The Rivers scenario imagines a world where market forces and decentralized cooperation drive rapid energy transitions. Instead of waiting for governments to act, businesses, investors, and consumers accelerate the shift toward renewables and efficiency.

Key Features of the “Rivers” Scenario:

• Private-Sector-Led Clean Energy Growth – Companies and investors push renewables, EVs, and battery storage.
• Digital Disruption – AI, blockchain, and predictive analytics revolutionize energy grids and trading.
• Flexible, Adaptive Regulations – Governments incentivize, rather than mandate, clean energy adoption.
• Cross-Border Energy Cooperation – Instead of national energy silos, regional grids and industry partnerships emerge.

Real-World Signals of the “Rivers” Future:

• Tesla, Ørsted, and corporate giants leading sustainability investment.
• AI-driven energy management reducing waste and improving efficiency.
• Private climate finance outpacing public investment.

This world moves faster toward decarbonization, but it also risks deepening inequality if governments fail to ensure fair access to clean energy.

Where are we now? A hybrid reality

The world is currently caught between these two scenarios.

• Europe is straddling both paths, with regulatory overreach hurting competitiveness (Rocks) but corporate-driven renewables booming (Rivers).
• The U.S. is divided, with some states aggressively pushing renewables (Rivers) while others double down on fossil fuels (Rocks).
• China’s slowdown and control over supply chains suggest a move toward energy nationalism (Rocks), but its clean energy manufacturing still drives the global transition (Rivers).

This mix of trends makes scenario-based planning even more critical.

What governments and businesses should do now

1. Build Resilient Energy Alliances
   • Strengthen regional partnerships to secure supply chains
   • Encourage public-private collaborations to accelerate grid modernization
   • Form cross-industry coalitions to address the food-water-energy nexus
2. Treat Energy Transition as Risk Management
   • Incorporate climate risks into energy infrastructure.
   • Diversify supply chains to avoid bottlenecks.
   • Prepare for shifting regulations to avoid trade disruption.
3. Balance the Energy Trilemma
   • Security – Reduce reliance on fragile fossil fuel markets.
   • Equity – Ensure access to affordable, clean energy.
   • Sustainability – Keep decarbonization on track despite short-term crises.

Conclusion: preparing for an unpredictable future

The world is at an energy crossroads. Whether we enter a “Rocks” era of nationalism and fragmentation or a “Rivers” era of market-driven acceleration depends on the choices made today.

For businesses and governments, waiting is not an option. Those who invest in resilience, alliances, and adaptive strategies will be the ones shaping the future of energy—not just reacting to it.

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