COP29: The last sprint for climate ambitions

The last week of COP29 in Baku, and the past few days of negotiations have been marked by a familiar blend of hope and frustration. Despite intensive efforts, the technical discussions led by SBI and SBSTA yielded little progress, leaving fundamental issues deferred to next year under Rule 16 or carried over to this second week. The talks were slowed down by disorganised, incomplete, or absent texts, which hindered an already complex process.

The slow pace of these negotiations is reminiscent of the pre-Paris Agreement era, highlighting a lack of urgency at a time when decisive action is critical.

From technical talks to political decisions

As ministers take center stage, the second week signals a crucial shift from technical deliberations to high-stakes political decision-making. The stakes are clear: either world leaders demonstrate bold political will and deliver concrete actions, or we risk diluting a pivotal opportunity to secure the financial support that vulnerable nations need to implement the transition and to lay a robust foundation for global climate action.

The challenges are immense:as COP29 enters its final stretch, its success will likely be judged on one defining criterion: whether countries can agree on an ambitious and credible financial package.

The G20’s role

The intersection of COP29 and the G20 Summit in Rio de Janeiro has added an unprecedented dimension to this year’s negotiations. Representing over 80% of global emissions and 85% of global GDP, G20 nations have the power to define the trajectory of global climate efforts.

Encouragingly, the G20 Declaration has provided a much-needed boost, offering explicit support for COP29’s establishment of a New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) for climate finance. Among its highlights:

• Climate finance commitments: a call to reform the global climate finance system, scaling investments in developing countries from billions to trillions

• Acknowledgement of shared responsibility: a recognition of common but differentiated responsibilities, while addressing national circumstances

A (lack of) leadership 

Despite these positive signals, COP29 feels increasingly adrift, losing both urgency and focus. Entrenched geopolitical tensions and bureaucratic inertia, the absence of strong leadership, due in part to post-election uncertainty in the US and internal fragilities in the EU, has left a vacuum, hindering efforts to bridge divides and drive meaningful progress.

1.5°C: A beacon of hope or an unrealistic dream?

The 1.5°C target remains the cornerstone of global climate ambition, but the window to achieve it is closing rapidly. Abandoning this goal would risk demoralising the climate movement and eroding decades of progress in global awareness. As EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra aptly stated, 1.5°C is not just a technical target; it is a symbol of hope and urgency.

Yet, this challenge is as much psychological and political as it is technical.
If 1.5°C becomes unattainable, what replaces it?
Abandoning numerical goals altogether could leave the world without a clear sense of direction.
David Victor, Director of the Deep Decarbonization Initiative, warns that any new target might be seen as backsliding. Still, the need for a realistic yet ambitious new narrative is growing ever more urgent.

Connecting the crises: climate, biodiversity, and desertification

Another pressing issue is the siloed nature of global environmental negotiations. Within weeks, the world has seen the conclusion of the Biodiversity COP in Cali and prepares for the Desertification COP in Riyadh. The climate crisis cannot be addressed in isolation from biodiversity loss and land degradation. Nature is a strategic ally in combating climate change, but leveraging this potential requires integrated policies and real financial commitments.

The NDCs: credibility under scrutiny

COP29 also marks the launch of the next cycle of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), due by February 2025. These commitments must be credible, ambitious, and aligned with long-term net-zero targets. While nations like the UK, Brazil, and the UAE have already presented updated plans, the majority of countries have yet to submit theirs, leaving a significant gap in global ambition.

This is no time for weak compromises or indecision. COP29 must prove that multilateralism can still deliver bold, transformative solutions. The time for waiting is over. What is at stake is not just the future of generations to come but the survival and dignity of millions already facing the devastating impacts of climate change.

The final days: a call for courage

As COP29 nears its conclusion, negotiators must overcome the inertia of the first week and address the growing scepticism surrounding what can realistically be achieved

This COP stands as a test for the global community’s political will. Extraordinary courage is required, not only to keep the 1.5°C target alive but to craft a new, pragmatic, and ambitious narrative for the climate movement. The world needs outcomes that restore trust in the UNFCCC process, provide hope to vulnerable nations, and set the stage for meaningful progress. Without bold decisions and a decisive acceleration this week, COP29 risks being remembered as a missed opportunity in a moment when every failure has irreversible consequences for humanity and the planet.