A deeper look into the food-energy-water stress nexus

Previous analyses have underscored the critical importance of grappling with interconnected systems to build resilience. While these systems are integral to our own biological makeup, our cognitive wiring often struggles to process their complexity and the disruptive changes that can arise. The resulting sense of stress and anxiety, or "existential angst" as one of my colleagues described it, is a palpable reaction to this inherent complexity.

Mapping the stress nexus

Over a decade ago, my team sought to navigate this complexity by focusing on the intricate links between food, water, and energy security. We coined the term "Stress Nexus" to describe this web of interconnected factors. Initially, our subject-matter specialists identified more than 300 factors, which we clustered into a more manageable 100. Even with this reduction, the potential for 10,000 connections - and a significant 1,000 of them proving impactful - presented a profoundly complex system.

To make sense of this daunting network, we leveraged the expertise of a complexity scientist. Using specialized software, we were able to analyze the network's structure and identify the most influential "nodes" that drive the overall system's behavior. This approach is similar to how a previous analysis of the Papal Conclave was presented, highlighting key influencers within a complex system.

Five key drivers of change

Our analysis highlighted five major groups of influential factors within the food-energy-water security stress nexus, providing a structured framework for understanding this complex issue:

• Smart & sustainable design: This emerged as one of the two most influential factors in the entire network. The quality of urban development is a primary driver, especially as the global population continues to urbanize. How cities are designed, from integrated infrastructure to material use, will profoundly shape future resource demands. This category also includes the efficiency of rural food supply chains and sustainable agricultural practices.

• Policy & pricing: This highlights the crucial role of effective alignment mechanisms. The regulation and pricing of greenhouse gas emissions and the cost of freshwater and fossil energy are essential tools for shaping resource use and incentivizing the development of more efficient technologies.

• Technological innovations: While technologies like solar and wind power are becoming established, our analysis highlighted two other critical innovations: carbon dioxide capture and storage to mitigate climate pressures, and waste conversion to energy.

• Natural resource nationalism & other constraints: Political and economic limitations on resource supply - such as the damming of rivers or restrictions on rare metals for battery production - directly impact security. These constraints can create supply bottlenecks and increase system-wide vulnerability.

• Population & prosperity growth: The foundational pressure on the stress nexus is driven by the scale of human activity. The number of people on the planet and the level of economic activity required for a decent quality of life are the underlying factors. It is worth noting that serious efforts around the world to improve education for girls and young women, and empower them to manage their reproductive choices, could significantly reduce population pressures and, by extension, human demands on the environment.

Ultimately, understanding these five key drivers of change is a crucial step toward building a more resilient future. By focusing on these influential factors, we can move from feelings of "existential angst" to effective action, ensuring a more secure and sustainable world for all.

illuminem Voices is a democratic space presenting the thoughts and opinions of leading Sustainability & Energy writers, their opinions do not necessarily represent those of illuminem.

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