Climate change continues

The year 2024 is shaping up to be the hottest on record for the global mean surface temperature. Moreover, every month in 2024 featured major regional disasters as a consequence. Climate change latches onto the regular weather and climate fluctuations and exacerbates them to make them more extreme. Moreover, relatively modest increments beyond previous values can cause things to break and hence cause untold damage: “the straw that breaks the camel’s back”.

The 2015 Paris Agreement included text “Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels…”. But 2024 is already above 1.5°C above pre-industrial values, and, while natural variability will likely drop values below that number for a bit, there really is no going back. One cannot undo the disasters that continue month after month. Some changes are irreversible.

Drought, crop failure, heat waves and wildfires became common in many areas of the world in 2024, from southern Africa in February, southern Asia and the Philippines by April, the Pantanal in Brazil in June, widespread heatwaves and wildfires in Europe in August, and in the northeast United States in November. Mass bleaching occurred in the Great Barrier Reef in March, and multiple hurricanes in the Caribbean in July and southeast United States caused havoc in September. Yagi was a deadly and destructive super typhoon in early September in Southeast Asia and south China and then flooded Myanmar, Laos and Thailand. Major floods in Chad and Nigeria also occurred in September, and a monstruous deluge in Valencia, Spain in October led to major devastation. As well as loss of life and livelihood, the costs and disruption locally were shattering.

Did COP29 help?

Then in November there was the COP29 meeting in Baku, Azerbaijan, of almost 200 nations. It seems very little progress was made on limiting emissions of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide, all of which are increasing in the atmosphere from human activities, especially from burning fossil fuels. Further, one wonders about the so-called progress in the finance plan, highlighted for this COP. The latter is based on the concept that the developed rich countries have mainly caused the problem, and the small island states and developing countries are the victims. The rhetoric is deafening.

While it is true that historically it has been the United States and Europe leading the way in carbon dioxide emissions, this is no longer the case, as for the past two decades China has dominated the total emissions by far, and has passed Europe in total accumulated emissions. Moreover, India’s emissions are climbing rapidly and it is these two countries that are the main cause of worsening changes currently. It is sometimes argued that China and India have lower emissions per capita, but the atmosphere and climate care not one iota about per capita values, only total amounts! Population matters.

In addition, while climate change effects and especially the increases in extremes are major problems, notably with regard to sea level rise, a much bigger problem is too many people in too many vulnerable places, such as flood plains. The clamour from developing nations about not enough financing may be true, but only if the problem is extended from climate change to all societal issues arising from too many people. The need to provide adequate food, water and shelter when all the best land for these is already in use greatly compounds any climate change issues. Protests from the Indian delegation ignore the fact that the extensive flooding in summer 2022 displaced many in Pakistan and India who were resident in the flood plain. Vulnerability to climate impacts is a huge problem, but it is not caused by developed countries. No wonder there is a failure to get good agreements when the issues are not adequately spelt out. 

Moreover, the demands for higher commitments of order $1.3 trillion per year instead of the $300 billon per year by 2035 agreed to seem strange to this observer when we note that few nations are on track to meet commitments already made under the Paris Agreement.

Do unfulfilled pledges help?

Updated pledges on emissions reductions are due in February 2025. It is already clear that many such pledges are worthless, and too many countries, like New Zealand, depend on offshore carbon credits that almost certainly will never materialise as real cuts in atmospheric carbon dioxide. Growing trees is not a solution to reducing emissions and has limited impact on reducingcarbon in the atmosphere. Indeed, observed increases in carbon dioxide by NOAA in the past year of 3.5 parts per million by volume are as high as they have even been.

Prospects for progress become much worse in 2025 as the likelihood is for the new U.S. President to pull out of the Paris Agreement. Where will the leadership come from?Until and unless country representatives and politicians stop talking past each other, it seems little progress is likely in arresting climate change. From a scientific standpoint, this certainly places the emphasis on planning for, adapting to, and building resilience to future climate extremes. Availability of ample good quality water (but not too much!) is a particular need.

illuminem Voices is a democratic space presenting the thoughts and opinions of leading Sustainability & Energy writers, their opinions do not necessarily represent those of illuminem.